Method

How Launch Radar works

When you launch a memecoin, the first minutes decide everything. If the biggest streamers and top traders are all busy riding another coin, fewer eyes land on yours, and the wallets that copy them don't follow either. Launch Radar watches those people live and tells you whether the coast is clear.

Who we watch

Every trader Kolscan lists (about 550 wallets): well-known memecoin streamers, creators and traders (marked ★), the top 50 by profit over the last day, week and month, and everyone else on Kolscan. The list refreshes every hour, so new hot traders appear automatically.

What the statuses mean

● In a coin: bought a coin in the last 2 hours and still holds it (worth over $100). Their attention is taken.
● Holding: still holds a coin bought earlier today. Partly busy.
● Free & hunting: traded in the last 6 hours but is not in anything right now. The best audience for a new launch.
● Offline: no trades for 6 hours or more.

The launch score

Seven checks, each scored 0 to 100 and weighted. 70 or more: GO. 50 to 69: CAUTION. Under 50: WAIT.

Big wallet activity (15%): How many big wallets are actually trading: of the KOLs who traded today, how many traded in the last hour (compared with a normal hour once we have measured one). Active KOLs are watching for new coins; quiet ones are not. This is also the Big wallet activity index on the front page.
Big wallets free (25%): Out of the tracked traders who traded in the last 6 hours, how many are NOT sitting in a coin they just bought. Free traders are hunting and can notice your launch. If three or more of them pile into the same coin, that coin is soaking up attention and the score drops.
Buyers around (20%): How much Pump.fun's busiest coins traded in the last hour, compared with a normal hour (measured by us over the last day). More trading means more buyers looking for the next coin.
Competition (15%): New Pump.fun coins in the last hour versus normal, set against the buying. Fewer launches sharing more buying is better for you.
Coins graduating (10%): How many Pump.fun coins filled their bonding curve in the last hour, versus normal. More graduations means buyers are pushing coins all the way.
One coin hogging attention (10%): If a single coin takes a huge share of Pump.fun trading, a runner is pulling everyone in and new launches get ignored.
SOL mood (5%): SOL falling hard makes people sell rather than buy new coins.

What "good volatility" means

You want memecoins moving a healthy amount (roughly 8 to 35% an hour for the busiest coins): traders are active and hungry. Dead-quiet markets have no buyers; wildly swinging ones make buyers cautious. SOL itself should be steady. The Volatility check shows both.

Where the data comes from

Kolscan (kolscan.io): Names, X handles and wallets of known memecoin traders, plus their day/week/month profit. Read once an hour from its public leaderboard page.
Solana network (PublicNode): About once a minute (while the site is being viewed) we check every tracked wallet for new transactions and work out what it bought or sold. Works for every app (Axiom, Photon, GMGN, bots…) because they all end on-chain. Pump.fun launches and graduations are counted on the chain too.
PumpPortal: The live list of new Pump.fun coins, streamed straight to your browser.
GeckoTerminal: How busy Pump.fun and PumpSwap are (trading on their busiest coins), used in the launch score.
DexScreener: Coin names, pictures, prices and market caps.
Coinbase: SOL price and how much it is moving.

Limits, honestly

Wallet names come from Kolscan. People often trade from several wallets; we only see the ones Kolscan lists.
We see trades from the moment we start watching. Coins bought before that aren't counted as "in a coin".
Very busy bot wallets make dozens of trades a minute; for those we read the newest trades and may miss a few.
The radar refreshes about once a minute while someone has the site open. After a quiet spell the first visit catches up.
"Normal" is measured by us: right after a restart the comparisons need about 3 hours to fill in, and the best-hours chart a day.
No score can promise a coin will do well. It tells you about the crowd, not about your coin.